Risk factors and predictive scoring system for twice or more strokes in patients with cerebral small vessel disease

Abstract

Objectives To explore the independent risk factors of twice or more strokes in patients with cerebral small vessel disease, and to construct a predictive scoring system.

Methods A retrospective study was carried out in Tangshan, Hebei Province, China. Patients with cerebral small vessel disease suffered from acute stroke and admitted to Neurology Department of Tangshan Gongren Hospital from January 2020 to June 2021 were collected and grouped according to whether they had a previous stroke history. Binary logistic regression models were used to investigate the independent risks for the occurrence of twice or more strokes in patients with cerebral small vessel disease, assigned scores to each factor, then established and evaluated the predictive efficacy of the predictive scoring system.

Results A total of 531 patients were included. Regression analysis showed that age, hypertension, diabetes, intracranial arterial stenosis, and total cerebral small vessel disease burden were independent risk factors. On the basis of each regression coefficient, a 10-point predictive scoring system selected the highest Jordon index as the cut-off value, which was 4 points. And the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.842 (95 %CI: 0.796~0.893, P＜0.001).

Conclusions The predictive scoring system based on age, hypertension, diabetes, intracranial arterial stenosis, and total cerebral small vessel disease burden can effectively predict whether patients with cerebral small vessel disease are tend to be onset with twice or more strokes.